Thursday, 12 November 2009

Fuel for the Fire - Swill for the Swine

by Peter Reichelt

I admit this whole swine flu business has me confused. If you listen to the media, we are all at risk and in urgent need of being vaccinated. If infection rates were high, I would wholeheartedly agree. But the numbers that I am getting are anything but alarming.

Consider the following quote from the Belfast Telegraph, dated
Nov. 10th: (Embedded links to sources blue and underlined)

"The 2009 swine flu pandemic may turn out to be the weakest in history.
It is spreading more slowly than expected and the latest figures show a
flattening — or even a dip — in new infections.

...In July, shortly after the World Health Organisation declared the
first flu pandemic for 40 years, Britain's Chief Medical Officer Sir
Liam Donaldson published a worst-case scenario suggesting the country
should plan for up to 65,000 deaths.

That planning assumption has since been revised downwards twice. In
September the “worst case” was cut to 19,000 deaths, and in October it
was cut again to 1,000. This compares with an average annual toll of
4,000 to 8,000 deaths from seasonal winter flu. In the last epidemic in
1999-2000 there were 21,000 deaths."

Then, assuming this following number is correct - or even remotely
correct - why would one consider getting the shot, when one doesn’t do so during “normal” years, when infection and death rates are much higher?

"So far, 2009 “novel H1N1” flu has caused 6,394 deaths worldwide, of
which 154 have been in the UK.”
While all these deaths are tragic, when considering that we are in the middle of a WHO-declared world-wide pandemic since July of this year, these numbers are absolutely miniscule.

Some additional numbers will add perspective: According to the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a US gov’t agency), by the beginning of November, (“only”) 18 children had died in the US from influenza, 15 of them due to H1N1. According to a CDC document “36,171 people died of seasonal flu-related causes each year, on average, during the 1990s in the United States. This figure includes people dying from complications of seasonal flu.” Let’s play with these numbers. I will assume that these numbers are the same on a per capita basis in Canada. The roughly 36,000 deaths in the US translate to almost exactly 100 people per day, distributed evenly over the whole year.

Put simply, this means that on average 100 people die of the flu or flu-related complications every single day of the year. Also, from the same article: “For respiratory and circulatory (R&C) deaths, CDC estimates approximately 36,000 deaths are associated with seasonal flu. This represents 3.1% percent of those deaths. For all-cause deaths, CDC estimates that approximately 51,000 deaths are associated with seasonal flu. This represents 2.2% of all deaths.” In the same article they are saying that 51,000 deaths are associated with seasonal flu. This would bring the daily toll to 138 deaths. This is how the H1N1 deaths are tallied. Anyone who dies and is found to have that virus is considered to have died from this virus. So it will make sense to work with the latter number of 138 deaths per day. Applied to the Canadian situation, it is most likely safe to simply divide the US numbers by 10, as Canada has about one tenth of the population of the US. So: 138 ÷ 10 ≈ 14. This means 14 people die per day in Canada from the seasonal flu during an average year, 365 days a year. It needs to be pointed out that these deaths are not evenly distributed throughout the year.

Instead, the majority of these fatalities are “bunched” into the flu season which starts in week 40 of the year – so somewhere in the first week of October. I have no percentages as to the actual distribution of cases throughout the year. However, for simplicity’s sake let’s pretend that fatalities occur at an even rate throughout the year. In that case Canada should have had roughly 1700 deaths (120 days X 14 deaths/day) since the pandemic declaration. Anyone who has followed the swine flu story in Canada will attest that at no time have we been hearing of deaths due to H1N1, or the seasonal flu, in terms of numbers even remotely close to those above. It might be argued that this is because we have only entered the official flu season in October. Let’s weigh that consideration.

Practically, this means that during the off-season portion of the year the number of flu deaths is well below the 14 deaths per day and during the course of the on-season it should be well above that number. We are now roughly one month (give or take a week) into flu season. This means death rates are expected to accelerate to well above the 14 deaths per day which we get on average. So 30 X 14 = 520. In the last month, if this were a normal flu season, we would expect 520 people to have died in Canada at the very, very minimum. Again, considering the distribution curve resulting from the seasonality, that number would reasonably be expected to be much higher. But are we seeing these kinds of death rates in Canada? No, we are not. Quoting again from the Telegraph article, only 164 people have died in total in the UK from the beginning to now. This is all the more significant when you consider that the UK has a population almost twice that of Canada.

So where is the emergency? Where are the nurses nation-wide who are forced to pull double shifts to deal with an inundation of genuine (rather than panicked/imagined) H1N1 pandemic victims? Something smells here, and it’s not swine. One draws one’s own conclusions. Something else. I just tried to use the same search engine and the same search term to find the Telegraph article again. Can’t find it anymore. It is no longer “findable” via the search engine. Isn’t that odd? Now I just came across the following: ”TV transmission of a live parliamentary debate in Poland was cut off for fifteen minutes today after the Polish Health Minister Ewa Kopacz said that WHO was spreading disinformation in the Ukraine concerning the „swine flu“ pandemic. Kopacz has come under fierce criticism from some quarters after she said she will resist pressure to press ahead with the mass vaccination of the population with untested swine flu jabs that could cause damage and death to more people than the swine flu.

The unexpected interruption of the TV and website transmission of the debate in parliament will fuel fears that portions of the Polish media and government allied to big pharma and banks are censoring critics of WHO and of the toxic and untested swine flu jabs. The Polish Health Minister was cut off in the middle of answering questions on the „swine flu“ jab and footage of French President Nicholas Sarkozy was shown, it is reported. Kopacz has been celebrated as a „hero“ by the general public for her stance in putting the health of the general public before the profits of big pharma and WHO.”

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